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Short(er) Oat Crop = Lower Grain Yield?

There have been many reports of short(er) than expected small grains in southern Minnesota. Both heat and drought stress accelerate plant development.  The above-average temperatures these past two weeks have coincided with stem elongation, resulting in a shorter crop.  A short crop doesn’t necessarily mean reduced yield, however, as was the case in 2017. The abnormally short crop that year broke the state record for spring wheat yield by a wide margin as temperatures during grainfill were near ideal.

The current crop tillered and initiated the panicle/head under near-perfect conditions. The number of spikelets per spike in wheat, for example,  is determined during the 4-5 leaf stage, with every 5F increase in temperature above 65F resulting in one fewer spikelet per spike. 

The current crop has not aborted tillers yet due to drought stress.  The immediate and 10-day forecast suggest a bit cooler, more seasonal temperatures that are near ideal for small grains. Crop water usage is peaking at about  0.2" of water per day with the current forecast as grainfill gets underway, and a few timely rains wouldn't hurt. 

Bottom line - a shorter crop does not equate to a lower yield and is less prone to lodging 


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